The 2024 NFL Draft is just a few weeks away and this promises to be one of the best drafts in recent memory. But which teams have had the most success in Round 1 over the last decade?
Thanks to the Pro-Football-Reference website, Bet Missouri.com – where we cover all issues pertaining to Missouri sports betting legalization efforts – pulled data on how well every team has drafted in the first round since 2014. The idea behind the research was to find the total approximate value (AV) of all the first-round picks by a specific team and then average it out by number of picks.
So which teams performed the best? And how do the Kansas City Chiefs rank, especially now that they are coming off back-to-back Super Bowl wins? Let’s dive into the data:
Draft 1st-Round Value By Team Since 2014
There are no legal Missouri sportsbook apps but in neighboring Kansas, the Chiefs have +650 odds to become the first team ever to win three consecutive Super Bowls. That’s second behind the San Francisco 49ers, the team that Kansas City defeated last month in Super Bowl 58.
The success of the first-round picks over the past 10 years by the Chiefs, who rank sixth on our list, has been spotty. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (2020), Dee Ford (2014), and Marcus Peters (2015) were all solid players for the Chiefs, but none were signed to long-term deals. Trent McDuffie (2022) and George Karlaftis (2022) were both big contributors in the past two Super Bowl wins for the Chiefs, but it’s hard to say what the future looks like for both players considering they are only two years into their NFL careers.
Patrick Mahomes Accounts For High Average
But one pick explains why the Chiefs rank this high in draft pick value since 2014: Patrick Mahomes.
The quarterback, drafted No. 10 overall in 2017, has a career AV of 109. That is just one point less than all of the first-round picks for the Seattle Seahawks since 2014 combined. Since becoming the full-time starter in 2018, Mahomes averages an AV of 18 per season, has been the league’s Most Valuable Player twice and has led Kansas City to three Super Bowl titles.
It’s worth mentioning that the highest AV season in NFL history came from LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. It’s also important to remember that AV only accounts for the regular season. Otherwise, Mahomes and the Chiefs would be even higher on this list.
The Chiefs have a very solid recent draft history, especially outside of Round 1. Recent hits such as Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith and Rashee Rice have allowed this team to keep its championship window open. (For another example of the Chiefs getting production out of a later pick, see our story about Noah Gray value among NFL tight ends.)
The Chiefs been really good in the first round too, but that’s mostly been because of Mahomes. Don’t expect Kansas City’s window to close any time soon as the Chiefs have one of the NFL’s top front offices.
