There’s an old adage in baseball that a hot start can make the difference between a ticker-tape parade and missing the postseason entirely, which is exactly what’s happened to the St. Louis Cardinals of late.
Utilizing BaseballReference.com, BetMissouri.com used its Missouri sports betting experts to discern that the Cardinals have ultimately missed out on October baseball because of the way they’ve started the season, partially explaining the team’s two-year postseason drought.
How NL Central Teams Have Fared in April & May
Rank | Team | Record | Runs Scored | Runs Allowed |
1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 51-28 | 372 runs | 304 runs |
2 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 43-38 | 352 runs | 355 runs |
3 | Chicago Cubs | 40-38 | 389 runs | 334 runs |
4 | St. Louis Cardinals | 35-44 | 313 runs | 336 runs |
5 | Cincinnati Reds | 31-48 | 339 runs | 387 runs |
Slow Start For The Cardinals
Over the last three years, the Cardinals have posted the second-worst record in the five-team NL Central during the first two calendar months of the season, going 35-44 overall and being outscored by 23 runs during that stretch (336-to-313).
Over that period, the Cardinals have posted a 247-239 (.508) record, though that overall number was a bit inflated thanks to the team’s 93-69 (.587) finish in 2022, which was the team’s last trip to the postseason.
This year, St. Louis enters the 2025 MLB regular season with a preseason win total over/under of 77.5, with home series against teams like the Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia Phillies, Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers on the docket between March 27 and April 30.
Based on the ZIPs projections from the team at FanGraphs.com, we can expect last year’s WAR leader, in 22-year-old shortstop Masyn Winn, to have another strong season in St. Louis, with the site projecting him to finish 2025 with 3.0 WAR, ranking third on the Cardinals’ starting nine by that metric behind third baseman Nolan Arenado (3.2 WAR projection) and outfielder Lars Nootbar (3.1 WAR projection).
Based on how the Cardinals have fared out of the gate of late, St. Louis will likely need all of the WAR production they can get to turn the tide on the team’s mediocre starts, with the NL Central stalwart ranking behind the Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs when it comes to April & May records over the last three seasons.
Interestingly, the only NL Central teams to post a positive run differential during that stretch were the Brewers, who have a 51-28 record and a +68 differential, along with the Cubs, who have gone 40-38 with a +55 differential between 2022 and 2024, with the second-place Pirates going 43-38 with a -3 differential (355-to-352) in that timespan.
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Author
Christopher Boan is a lead writer for BetMissouri.com, specializing in covering state issues. He has covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
